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Market analysis and congressional trading insights
SpaceX Is Just the Beginning: The Equity Supply Shock That Will Define Markets Through 2027
The SpaceX IPO on June 12 is not an isolated event — it is the first wave of a massive equity supply shock that will run through early 2027. Alphabet is preparing a $40 billion share issuance before September. OpenAI and Anthropic have filed confidentially with the SEC. Meta will issue shares to fund AI. Each listing requires the market to stay high enough to place the paper. José Luis Cava maps the precise timeline, explains why the current correction is algorithmic and temporary, and identifies the window when the real buying opportunity arrives.
Michael Burry Is Short — But the Three Conditions for a Market Top Are Not Met
Michael Burry has opened massive short positions on the Nasdaq 100, semiconductors, Palantir, and NVIDIA. But according to José Luis Cava, three conditions must be present before a genuine market top forms — and none of them are currently in place. The real lesson from Burry's 2008 trade is not that he was right, but that he was right two years too early, which for any normal speculator means account liquidation. Plus: how algorithms use fake breakouts to trap both bulls and bears before the real move, and what early Bitcoin signals actually mean.
Korea's Black Monday: China Is Draining Liquidity and the Yuan Is the Signal to Watch
The KOSPI opened down 8% on Monday, triggering a 20-minute trading halt. The proximate cause was mechanical — catching up to the 14% Friday decline in the US-listed KWY ETF. But the root cause is structural: China's central bank is withdrawing liquidity, the Yuan is strengthening, and the ripple effects are hitting semiconductors, crypto, and gold simultaneously. José Luis Cava maps the correction targets for SK Hynix and the KOSPI, identifies 800,000+ open put contracts as a contrarian signal, and gives one technical indicator that will confirm the floor.
SpaceX Is Three Companies in One — and the Math Does Not Work at $2 Trillion
SpaceX's IPO is arriving in one of the most euphoric markets in history — Micron up 197% in 2026, SanDisk up 4,200% in twelve months. Fernando Sánchez cuts through the narrative with the actual financial data: SpaceX is three businesses with radically different economics, consolidated losses of $4.9 billion, and a valuation of 43 to 46 times sales. The three golden rules for anyone who still wants exposure, and why the lockup expiration — not the listing date — is where the real opportunity begins.
Buffett Buys Alphabet: Why AI Is Not the Dotcom Bubble
Warren Buffett's largest investment since 2018 — a $10 billion position in Alphabet — is the clearest signal yet that the AI infrastructure buildout is not speculative excess but rational capital allocation with real returns. Fernando Sánchez analyses why the hyperscalers are different from the dotcom era, why Meta is the most undervalued of the group, and where the real bubble risk actually lies: in memory semiconductors, not in the companies building the AI stack.
The IPO Trap: Why the Biggest Tech Listings Destroy Retail Wealth
The data is unambiguous: the largest technology IPOs in history have destroyed wealth for retail investors who bought at listing. Facebook, Uber, Coinbase, Robinhood — each fell between 39% and 90% in their first year. With SpaceX preparing the most anticipated IPO since Facebook, and its structure designed to create artificial scarcity, Fernando Sánchez maps the mechanics of why IPOs are built for insiders, not for the public.
SpaceX IPO: The European Investor's ETF Guide and the Lockup Risk Nobody Expected
The SpaceX IPO is not just an equity event — it is a macroeconomic catalyst that could accelerate US GDP growth while simultaneously creating a sharp correction risk. This HOPLA Finance analysis (recorded May 28) maps the ETF vehicles available to European investors, explains why XOVR is off-limits due to UCITS rules, and identifies JEDI (VanEck) as the most accessible option. Plus: the lockup structure that changes everything, and why entering now during a parabolic rally is the wrong move.
The Speculator's Identity: How the Crowd Was Expelled From a 56% Rally
XLK, the technology sector ETF, rose 56.5% from its late March 2026 lows. On April 1st — the exact bottom — 51.4% of investors were bearish. Today, despite the 56% gain, bullish sentiment has only increased by 3%. Most retail investors missed the entire rally sitting in money market funds. José Luis Cava explains the psychology behind this systematic expulsion, the flat pattern technical structure that signals more upside ahead, and the mindset required to not be part of the herd.
SpaceX IPO: The Two-Phase Market Correction Nobody Is Talking About
The SpaceX IPO on June 12 is not a single event — it is a two-phase market disruption. Phase one: institutions sell semiconductors to make room for SpaceX in the Nasdaq 100. Phase two: the staged lockup expires after Q2 results, deliberately timed for August when markets are thin and investors are on holiday. José Luis Cava maps the full mechanics, explains why DXYZ is his preferred vehicle for SpaceX exposure, and identifies the technical entry levels.
The Dark Side of Bitcoin: How Market Makers Use Your PUT Options Against You — and Where the Real Opportunity Is
Bitcoin rose from $65,000 on March 30 to nearly $84,000 in May. Now the market makers have a map of exactly where retail investors are positioned — and they will use it. José Luis Cava explains the mechanics of the sweep: why $65,000 is the target, how PUT option concentration in IBIT tells institutions where to push the price, and what the professional speculator does while everyone else is panicking.
Five Investment Mantras That Can Destroy Your Portfolio If You Follow Them Blindly
Invest in what you consume. Hold forever. Stay convicted. Management doesn't matter. Buy the whole index. Five pieces of advice attributed to legendary investors — Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman, Pat Dorsey, Jack Bogle — that are partially true, widely misunderstood, and potentially dangerous when applied without nuance. Fernando Sánchez of Invertir desde Cero dismantles each one.
Investors Trust NVIDIA More Than the US Government — And How to Know When the Market Is Really in Danger
The Financial Times reported something extraordinary: the risk premium on NVIDIA's 5-year debt is lower than that of US government bonds. Private enterprise is now considered safer than the sovereign. José Luis Cava explains why this makes sense, why AI is still not a bubble, and introduces the one tool that separates real market danger from manufactured fear: Credit Default Swap premiums on high-yield debt.
Since 1971: SP500 ×311, Gold ×119, Real Estate ×29, Savings Account ×6
Since 1971, the dollar has lost 99% of its purchasing power against gold. A savings account at 4-5% annual return multiplied your money by 6 times. Real estate multiplied by 29. Gold by 119. The SP500 with dividends reinvested: 311 times. José Luis Cava runs the numbers on five decades of monetary degradation — and explains why the only rational response is to own assets, not cash.
Oil Reserves Are at Historic Lows, Central Banks Are Buying Gold, and the US Budget Office Says the System Is Broken
Everyone is bearish on oil. Jet fuel is down 30%. The IEA is warning of future shortages and nobody is listening. Strategic reserves are below seasonal minimums with only 100 days of global consumption remaining. Cava sees a price spike toward late July or early August, with Brent technical levels at 89.5 support and 95 breakout toward 120. Meanwhile, central banks are buying gold while selling US bonds — and the Congressional Budget Office confirms that at 3.2% of GDP in interest payments, the system is technically insolvent.
Cybersecurity Is Not Optional Anymore — And the Market Top Is October 2027 at the Earliest
AI adoption makes cybersecurity spending mandatory, not discretionary. José Luis Cava builds the structural case for the sector, identifies the specific ETF to own (CIBREU, London-listed), and explains why now is not the entry point — but 72-75 is. He also provides the most specific market top estimate yet: October 2027 to January 2028. And why Zscaler is more interesting than CrowdStrike right now.